Preliminary Analysis – 12 August 2026

Several people asked me to take a closer look at the so-called “Mining Race”, sometimes also referred to as the “Bitcoin Rally”.

That investigation has now begun.

This publication is expressly a preliminary analysis. We are still at the beginning of our research. Not all participating companies and individuals have been examined, nor have all payment flows, licences and technical evidence been evaluated.

Nevertheless, the basic model can already be explained. And an initial calculation raises significant economic questions.

What is being offered?

Mining Race combines Bitcoin mining with a multi-level sales, bonus and ranking system.

Participation begins with a so-called “Spot”. According to the company’s own terms, this is an annually renewable software or access licence. The Spot itself does not include any computing power.

Additional products and services may include:

Cores,

rented mining power,

Mining Cards,

physical mining devices,

power capacity,

Race rewards,

referral and network commissions.

A “Core” is supposed to represent 1 TH/s of computing power for twelve months. The smartphone itself does not mine Bitcoin. The app merely serves as an access and management interface. The actual computing power would have to be provided by external ASIC miners operating in dedicated mining facilities.

Technically, this is possible.

The decisive question is therefore not whether 1 TH/s can generate Bitcoin. It can.

The decisive question is:

How much Bitcoin is actually generated – and is there a reasonable economic relationship between the output, costs, fees and withdrawal options?

The Initial Calculation

Our initial calculation is based on an assumed total Bitcoin network hashrate of approximately 893 EH/s.

Under these conditions, one Core with 1 TH/s would generate approximately the following gross output over one year:

Item

Result

Computing power per Core

1 TH/s

Term

12 months

Expected gross output

approx. 0.00018 BTC

Standard withdrawal threshold

0.002 BTC

This produces the following calculation:

0.002 BTC ÷ 0.00018 BTC = 11.1

Under unchanged conditions, a single Core would therefore have to operate for more than eleven years to reach the standard withdrawal threshold.

However, a Core only runs for twelve months.

Alternatively, a user could purchase a corresponding number of Cores simultaneously. Before fees, at least twelve paid Core-year terms would theoretically be required to generate 0.002 BTC.

This is still a gross calculation.

The Fees Make the Ratio Even Worse

The current terms mention, among other things:

a 10% mining fee,

a 2% transaction fee,

an annually renewable Spot licence,

additional potential costs depending on the product used.

After deducting a 10% mining fee, approximately 0.000162 BTC would remain from an initial output of 0.00018 BTC.

The calculation would then be:

0.002 BTC ÷ 0.000162 BTC = 12.35

At least 13 Core-year terms would therefore theoretically be required to reach the standard withdrawal threshold – assuming the network hashrate, mining difficulty, availability and output remain unchanged.

In Bitcoin mining, however, none of this is guaranteed.

Mining Race itself states in its terms that actual profitability may differ and that mining may not be profitable. Mining Race – Terms and Conditions

Can Funds Be Withdrawn Below 0.002 BTC?

The current terms are noteworthy on this point.

On the one hand, they state that Mining Credits can be withdrawn once 0.002 BTC has been reached. On the other hand, withdrawals below this threshold are apparently possible if the user accepts a 10% fee.

The threshold may therefore not be an absolute restriction on withdrawals.

The economic problem remains:

Anyone generating only a very small amount of Bitcoin must either wait for a long time, purchase additional computing power or accept an additional deduction for an early withdrawal.

A Rising Bitcoin Price Does Not Solve the Quantity Problem

The withdrawal threshold is denominated in Bitcoin – not in euros or US dollars.

If the Bitcoin price rises, the monetary value of the accumulated balance also rises. However, the amount of Bitcoin held does not change.

For example:

existing balance: 0.00018 BTC,

withdrawal threshold: 0.002 BTC,

missing amount: 0.00182 BTC.

Whether one Bitcoin is worth €60,000, €100,000 or €200,000, 0.00018 BTC does not turn into a larger amount of Bitcoin.

A price increase does not move the participant a single satoshi closer to the Bitcoin-denominated withdrawal threshold.

More Bitcoin would still have to be mined. That requires additional time or additional Cores.

At What Bitcoin Price Would a Core Pay for Itself?

According to the sales information available to us, one Core costs US$25.

With an assumed annual output of 0.00018 BTC, the average Bitcoin price would have to be approximately US$138,900 for the gross mining output to equal US$25.

After deducting the stated 10% mining fee, the required Bitcoin price would already be approximately US$154,300.

This still does not account for:

the Spot licence,

transaction fees,

potential additional deductions,

changes in mining difficulty,

downtime or fluctuating hashrate,

the alternative of purchasing Bitcoin directly for US$25.

The withdrawal threshold alone therefore does not prove that the product is unprofitable. Combined with the purchase price, fees and limited term, however, it shows how narrow the economic margin is.

If profitability depends primarily on a substantial rise in the Bitcoin price, the obvious question is:

Why should a customer pay for an additional mining, licensing and commission system instead of purchasing Bitcoin directly?

Where Do the Commissions Come From?

According to the sales materials available to us, the advertised compensation includes:

10% on direct Spot subscriptions and renewals,

5% on certain Card or device purchases,

a 4% network bonus,

additional rank-based rewards.

Two sources of funds must be distinguished.

The first potential source of value is Bitcoin that is actually mined.

The second source consists of payments made by participants for Spots, Cores, Cards, devices and other products.

Direct and network commissions are triggered by sales. They are therefore part of the overall economic calculation of those sales. We cannot yet conclusively determine whether, and to what extent, they are paid from sales revenue, mining proceeds or other funds.

To establish this, we need access to:

complete compensation plans,

corporate and payment flows,

commission statements,

mining revenue,

wallet transactions,

financial statements or other reliable financial data.

What can already be established is this:

The limited mining output of a single Core does not, by itself, explain the extensive commission, rank and bonus system.

Does the Promised Computing Power Exist?

Mining Race claims that one Core represents 1 TH/s and generates actual Bitcoin mining rewards.

This is technically plausible. However, a credit displayed within an app does not prove that the advertised hashrate actually exists and operates continuously outside the company’s internal system.

Mining Race states that it connects to third-party mining pools. For physical devices, so-called Observer Links are said to be available for performance monitoring. Mining Race – FAQ

To independently verify the Cores, we need:

the names of the mining pools being used,

verifiable pool and worker data,

public Observer Links,

continuously measurable hashrate,

the locations of the mining facilities,

equipment inventories and serial numbers,

electricity and hosting records,

wallets and payment routes,

evidence supporting the advertised total amount of Bitcoin mined.

Until this evidence is available, the correct finding is:

According to its own description, Mining Race offers actual computing power. Whether all the hashrate sold exists and is fully allocated to participants has not yet been independently verified.

What Does the “Licence” Mean?

The term “Spot License” must not be confused with regulatory authorisation.

According to the terms, it is a software or access licence within the Mining Race system. It grants access to certain functions and products.

It is not a German authorisation to provide banking, financial or securities services.

We have not identified a published BaFin warning specifically naming Mining Race in the publicly available publications examined so far. However, this does not mean that BaFin has reviewed or approved the model in Germany.

On 20 March 2026, the Austrian Financial Market Authority warned against doing business with Miningrid L.L.C / Mining Race. According to the authority’s assessment, Mining Race Cards qualify as units in an alternative investment fund and the provider does not hold the required authorisation for their distribution in Austria. Official warning by the Austrian FMA

This Austrian assessment does not automatically apply to Germany. It is, however, a significant indicator for the continuing regulatory examination.

BaFin generally warns that some cloud-mining offers do not provide any actual computing power and that customers may not recover the money they have paid. This does not constitute a specific allegation of fraud against Mining Race. It merely demonstrates which forms of evidence are required when assessing such offers. BaFin: Caution with Cloud-Mining Offers

Preliminary Findings

Bitcoin mining is real. Renting small portions of larger mining operations is also technically possible.

The Core examined so far therefore has a technically plausible product basis.

However, the economic calculation is not currently convincing:

One Core is supposed to provide only 1 TH/s for twelve months.

The modelled annual output is approximately 0.00018 BTC before fees.

The standard withdrawal threshold is 0.002 BTC.

According to the initial calculation, at least twelve Core-year terms are required before fees and approximately 13 after deducting the mining fee.

The Bitcoin price changes the monetary value, but not the amount of Bitcoin required for withdrawal.

Spot licences, commissions, network bonuses and rank rewards must also be financed.

The actual existence and allocation of all the hashrate sold still require independent verification.

Our preliminary conclusion is therefore:

Mining Race combines a small but technically possible amount of Bitcoin mining power with a complex licensing, bonus, race and sales system. The mining value identified so far is not sufficient on its own to explain the economic attractiveness of the overall model.

We are still at the beginning of our analysis.

The next stage will examine the companies and individuals involved, the claimed licences, the mining infrastructure, mining pools, wallets, payment routes and the financing of commissions.

Further findings will follow.